Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
