It was two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over missing a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
